Monday, March 14, 2011

The Printing Money strategy

If you can successfully avoid some of the pitfalls, printing money aka Quantitative Easing can get you out of trouble. 

So there is a mountain high of debt threatening insolvency (Box 1). If you have control of monetary policy, you can print money, which Bernanke had done in a big and scary way. Fortunately it is mostly the experts that are scared. If it had frightened the man in the street, confidence would have totally evaporated and this con will not work.

Box 2 will produce Box 3: Currency devalues. Now the debt becomes cheaper. Remember for this strategy to work, confidence must remain intact.

The stock market goes up (box 4), saves many investors from margin calls etc., The economy is supported. There is less layoffs than expected. Wait for a while, nobody believes the end of the world is nigh. Confidence goes up further leading to business investment. Also worn out equipment need to be replaced. Now all these must get traction before Box 6 assert itself.

Not in this NaviMap, but Box 6 is now determined more by financial markets that actual supply and demand. In fact, the prospect of subpar growth would have serve the economy with cheaper commodities. Only after Box 5 have taken off confidently would Box 6 negative influence asserts itself.

The printing money strategy works best for economies with sophisticated financial markets. America fits the bill the best. They are getting away with their con once more.

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