Monday, November 16, 2009

USD carry trade

Box 1, 2 and 3 describe the US attempts to inflate its debt away. Since there are so many foreign holders of US assets, they especially China and Japan are forced to help pay the huge pile of US debt. Indeed we are living that attitude: The USD is my currency but your problem.

USD depreciation (box 3) opens up a massive opportunity for borrowing USD at near zero, even negative cost to buy non-US assets. This is driving up asset markets world wide (box 5). There is a reinforcing loop between Box 4 and Box 5. Massive assets bubbles are being inflated all over the world. They are unsustainable and will burst. As usual, too few people know when it will happen. Go bet the markets at your own risk.

As long as the USD is the reserve currency. The US will succeed at getting the rest of the world to help pay its humongous debt. US fiscal policies and consumer habits must change or she would just at the end of the road become utterly bankrupt and completely uncreditworthy.

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