tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-147711992012-02-17T12:09:33.227+08:00NaviMap is a a navigation map for understanding complex issues with knowledge maps. They look like Systems Thinking maps but are created and worked through differentlynavimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.comBlogger271100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-63601614874282957842011-03-14T16:32:00.000+08:002011-03-14T16:32:42.383+08:00

If you can successfully avoid some of the pitfalls, printing money aka Quantitative Easing can get you out of trouble.  So there is a mountain high of debt threatening insolvency (Box 1). If you have control of monetary policy, you can print money, which Bernanke had done in a big and scary way. Fortunately it is mostly the experts that are scared. If it had frightened the man in the street,

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-50329916837386629552011-03-14T16:12:00.000+08:002011-03-14T16:12:47.030+08:00

In NaviMap analysis, the Box 1, 2 and 4 is warning that the conditions for creating an asset bubble exist. Let's for a moment remove Box 1 "Economic Growth" from the picture. Then there should develop between Box 2 and Box 4 a  counterbalancing loop. The logic is like the population balance achieve from herds on limited grazing grounds. In reality, unless there is an unemployment problem, a

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-74231439345375800042011-02-20T17:48:00.000+08:002011-02-20T17:48:33.330+08:00

 The ultimate successful monopolist will have 1. A virtuous cycle between Strengths and Opportunities.2. A reinforcing loop in its favor between Opportunities and Threats because its Strengths had triggered it.3. Threats that yields weaker Weaknesses as a result.4. Eventually leading a a reinforcing loop in Strengths favor between itself and Weaknesses. NoteNot easy to arrive at this sweet spot

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-87605439124460976062011-02-01T09:58:00.000+08:002011-02-01T09:58:23.121+08:00

Vote for change (Box 7) is the most benign scenario. It may not happen and some worse possibilities may be the unpleasant or even horrific reality ahead of us. The drivers, i.e., can be represented as NaviMaps with reinforcing loops are not captured in this map. Clearly what is going on is unsustainable. They say demographics is destiny. If put to the vote and the older people are the

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-35896979540544518302010-05-22T14:44:00.000+08:002010-05-22T14:44:38.521+08:00

Can't find any vicious cycle leading to an unstoppable weakening of the Euro when I thought through and create this NaviMap. If the European leaders are utterly incompetent, perhaps we will see the Euro finished. They may not be first class leaders but not completely hopeless (box 2). We all know Greece catalysed this crisis for them (box 1) and a few more countries lumped together as the PIIGS

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-50296948568139956062009-11-22T07:30:00.001+08:002009-11-22T07:32:02.153+08:00

The US is trying to get the Chinese to up the CNY or RMB so that the Chinese will import more from the US (box 8).  This suggetion would not fly as it would put the Chinese into an unacceptably risky position. They have been unambiguously clear that China's contribution is to keep China stable and maintain its growth against their export markets shrinking. Boxes 1, 2 and 3 is the story of

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-82939992824303514902009-11-16T11:47:00.000+08:002009-11-16T11:47:03.385+08:00

Box 1, 2 and 3 describe the US attempts to inflate its debt away. Since there are so many foreign holders of US assets, they especially China and Japan are forced to help pay the huge pile of US debt. Indeed we are living that attitude: The USD is my currency but your problem. USD depreciation (box 3) opens up a massive opportunity for borrowing USD at near zero, even negative cost to buy

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-33883792449922865892009-11-09T10:38:00.000+08:002009-11-09T10:38:56.066+08:00

The NaviMap of November 7, "The Economic Recovery Process" is linked to today's, "Making Sense of Rising Gold Prices" via November 7 Box 9, "> USD weakness" to November 9 Box 3, "> selling USD". The "The Economic Recovery Process" is the driving force behind "Making Sense of Rising Gold Prices" transmitting its influence via the USD price signal.

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-27286349142746430512009-11-09T10:31:00.000+08:002009-11-09T10:31:32.047+08:00

Central banks have too much USD. As they diversify from it, USD weakens. The USD will find hopefully a high bottom because nobody is going to zero on the Dollar. The Americans will decide and the rest of the world will react accordingly. The more tough minded they are, the stronger the Dollar.

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-31457045246468475082009-11-07T21:29:00.003+08:002009-11-09T21:39:16.913+08:00

You would have to double click on the NaviMap above to see a larger picture. A few interesting features here. Box 1 and Box 8 No free hand for the Americans to print money. It is difficult trying to strike a balance. If they could have push even more money into the economy, they can quickly reverse the rising rate of unemployment. This is too risky as foreigners might give up on the dollar.

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-59908357117045276322009-09-17T21:56:00.000+08:002009-09-17T21:56:30.388+08:00

An article from the NYT, "Where Politics Don’t Belong" caused me to put my thoughts into this NaviMap. It discussed, "Too Big to Fail", i.e., Wall Street, and "Too Big to take a Pay Cut", i.e., the income of doctors. If governments and here I am using the American one as the example, would to leave the markets to decide what is produced, sold then the government would be much smaller and has less

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-7296029117624682282009-09-15T12:28:00.000+08:002009-09-15T12:28:12.750+08:00

Related PostWhere do we go from here: "Old Normal" vs "New Normal" Yesterday I posted a more complicated NaviMap and offered only a cryptic write up on it. The NaviMap above was created before the one in yesterday's post. The most important boxes is this NaviMap is the reinforcing loop between Box 2 and Box 4a. Box 4a is in blue to suggest that at the time of creating this NaviMap and even now,

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-35715212945825749122009-09-14T22:21:00.001+08:002009-09-14T22:23:14.921+08:00

This NaviMap tells two stories. One, how overwhelming government funds were employed to rescue the near collapsing financial system and succeeded. Box 1, Box2, Box A. and Box B. The the story continues with Box 3. (increasing asset inflation) because once fear is driven out liquidity naturally seeks higher return. Ideally policy makers are trying to achieve one or two virtuous loops of economic

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-61065232616717668672009-09-08T08:27:00.000+08:002009-09-08T08:27:13.885+08:00

"The Rule of Man" (box 1) is stuck in my mind after I read Zhao Ziyang's book, "Prisoner of the State". Box 1 describes how China is ruled but to a less degree than when Deng was numero uno. Note the reinforcing loop between Box 1 and Box 2. The Communist Party knows this is what keeps them in power. As no reinforcing loop can go on indefinitely, fairly early on Box 3 (Corruption) has been

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-42541400542323381552009-09-06T23:07:00.000+08:002009-09-06T23:07:03.301+08:00

This blog attempts to cover to much ground. I have started a related blog at http://virtuouscycles.blogspot.com/ which is more focused on understanding and owning the virtuous cycles around us. I welcome you to visit Virtuous Cycles.

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-78379633785876280832007-05-30T15:28:00.002+08:002009-09-06T21:51:08.620+08:00

When you truly forgive (box 1) you let go of the bad memories that feed your hurt (box 1a), which was simply kept alive by Box 1c because you remember them, perhaps even nurse them! Time can cause your bad memories (box 1a) to fade but only if you do not indulge it by keep on reminding yourself about them (box 1c). If you can really forgive (box 1), then you will eventually open yourself to

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1148837065141396642006-05-29T01:08:00.000+08:002006-05-29T01:24:25.166+08:00

I just visited Dubai and made some observations about its property market. There is a bubble being inflated right now and it can probably get bigger before it pops. Why?Let's begin with how all bubbles begin. There need to be a trigger otherwise higher property prices will moderate demand and there is no financial bubble.Financial bubbles always come about because buyers believe that prices will

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1123467966358392072005-08-08T10:22:00.000+08:002005-08-08T10:30:13.786+08:00

Most of us are not highly paid CEOs, and for a long time, a secure job (Box 1) is one that we perceived as "indispensable" to the organization, and it was easiest to see that it was so if it has a fair amount of routine (Box 2). It was a time when people who drift from project to project without a precise job description were thought to be at risk of losing their jobs. Read: More routine (Box 2)

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122932075550732782005-08-02T05:29:00.000+08:002005-08-02T05:34:35.553+08:00

NaviMap is a response to our age of information overload because our human brains are not designed for handling so much information simultaneously. Think of it like the handheld electronic calculator that we routinely use for doing sums or better still, the abacus. Not for numbers but ideas.I have found research (this is one of many) providing evidence that most humans cannot cope with more than

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122695259429469022005-07-30T11:44:00.000+08:002005-07-30T11:47:39.433+08:00

Microsoft owns the world of PC computing. The reinforcing loop between Box 1 and Box 2 underscores that fact. Microsoft pays their geeks especially well to write software (Box 1) and Microsoft’s success (Box 2) in turn attracts more geeks to their ranks. But Microsoft eventually loose their "cool factor" (Box 3) when they fail to continue to be the "happening place". No more sexy products to

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122606873632204832005-07-29T11:11:00.000+08:002005-07-29T11:14:33.636+08:00

For many years we saw that Meritocracy was good for any society that practiced it. It is a reinforcing loop and a virtuous cycle as shown in the relationship between Box 1 and Box 2. Meritocracy helps to identify and groom the able and make them successful (Box 2).Unfortunately all good things will eventually decline and come to an end, Meritocracy notwithstanding. It seemed that when a huge

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122539682318457152005-07-28T16:27:00.000+08:002005-07-28T16:34:42.333+08:00

Under normal circumstances the relationship between Box 1 and Box 2 should be a counterbalancing loop rather than a reinforcing one. But if competition is very intense, what results is reinforcing loop. This is the current reality.Box 2 inevitably leads to laying off workers (Box 3). Also the relationship between Box 2 and Box 3 this should be a counterbalancing loop instead of a reinforcing one.

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122522951622055582005-07-28T11:49:00.000+08:002005-07-28T12:03:21.406+08:00

Apple’s ability to stay ahead in the personal digital technology market is their special ability to tell consumers what is cool (something which Sony used to be able to do), i.e., Box 1 in Map 1. Their products, in this instance the iPods are not asking consumers what they want but surprising them with WOW designs in an MP3 player such that they become lifestyle items.Apple endeavors to bring on

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122509195554688702005-07-28T08:02:00.000+08:002005-07-28T08:06:35.560+08:00

This continues from yesterday’s post. No reinforcing loop last forever. In the above diagram, there are two such reinforcing loops between Box 1 and Box 2, Box 1 and Box 3. One possibility is that Box 1 might at some point in time innovate (Box 4) on what it offers to Box 2. Well that might keep Box 2 happy by anticipating your coustomer’s needs, it is likely to disrupt the reinforcing or

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122479287126954962005-07-27T23:41:00.000+08:002005-07-27T23:48:07.136+08:00

If you are a salesperson, your best customers are those who are themselves enjoying healthy and repeated sales with the customer’s customer. Such a story is shown in Map 1 as the virtuous cycle between Box 1 and Box 2.If you are the salesperson, the smart strategy is not concentrating your efforts solely on Box 1. Instead, focus on Box 2, which will offer you the insight needed to serve Box 1

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122273603884540672005-07-25T14:18:00.000+08:002005-07-25T15:04:06.400+08:00

In the war against Terror, it has become clear that we are trapped in a vicious cycle with the enemy. As we invest more in security; hardware, software, systems and even behavior adjustments (Box 1), the terrorists are just determined to try harder (Box 2). Also the cost to us is disproportionately higher than them at each iteration of this loop. Furthermore they usually have the initiative to

navimaphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08442638959408634966noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14771199.post-1122251348323297112005-07-25T08:21:00.000+08:002005-07-25T22:25:23.613+08:00

Is there a property bubble looming ahead of us? On July 19, the National Development Minister announced several liberalization measures that would encourage more participation in the residential property market. The cash downpayment for a property buyer is reduced from 20% to 10%. This is represented as Box 1 in the diagram. This should eventually lead to Box 2, i.e., more mortgages will be

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